The Red Cell

From General William Johnson:

In every successful military staff planning organization, there exists a small cadre of experts and analysts whose special purpose is to, in effect, find the flaws in any proposed plan before it is executed. My background includes 24 years of service as a US Navy officer, along with my current experience as a civilian military analyst, so I am familiar with operational planning and implementation. Regardless of the subject matter, though, principles remain constant. It is amazing, to me, how applicable the military approach is to preparing for a fantasy campaign.

In our world, baseball, we are bombarded with intelligence options that begin to appear in early December and are available through the entire draft season. Many fantasy baseball websites, game hosts, full-time researchers, and baseball magazines generate interest, thus revenue, by appealing to our collective insecurity about our (perceived lack of) knowledge. Ignorance may frustrate our effort to win, or so we fear. But where is the Red Cell in all of that wisdom?

FBG is one place to find contrarian analytical approaches. It is your Red Cell. Not that it is wise to ignore the obvious, that Ryan Howard will probably hit more home runs than Todd Helton, for example, but that the player-pool landscape is dotted with exceptions-to-the-rule, and in those exceptions lay value.

Now that drafts are in full swing, what is a common assumption? You probably answered something like “take hitting before pitching”. It is an idea that has gained momentum over time among more widely published analysts, as historical batting performance (individual capability, particular team capabilities to create run scoring opportunities, and such) has a better predictive correlation than historical pitching performance. Really, though, the individual team should be drafted for value and positional scarcity.

If you are in a standard 5x5 league, for instance, and Jake Peavy is available at the 8th spot in the first round, you may not want to dismiss that and instead default to Grady Sizemore in the outfield. Starting pitchers on winning teams, especially those with micro-WHIPs, are not terribly common (if you doubt that, check your league waiver list in a month). There is risk, certainly, but Corey Hart may still be available at your next pick, while a Cy Young-level ace on a winning team will not. That is just one example, but you get the idea. The one piece of non-contrarian advice that is universally true is that the top two or three players at any position, regardless of statistical categories measured, provide an advantage to their owner(s). Think about your pick before you make it, and make a decision with which you can live, regardless of how the season unfolds.