Derby of Doom?
The Home Run Derby has become a staple in the All-Star festivities, a fan favorite to many. Over the years, we've seen some of the top power hitters put on a show, launching balls out of the park as a sea of flash-bulbs light up the stadium. I myself find the Home Run Derby exciting, and as we all know, "chicks dig the long ball". However, as a fantasy owner, I've always been skeptical about the effects of the derby on players in the second half of the season.After taking a closer look, there seems to be a pattern or trend in players who have been finalists in the Home Run Derby. Some players like Ryan Howard in 2006, and Miguel Tejada in 2004 are an exception, but an overwhelming number of players showed decline in power and average post All-Star Break. Among these players are Josh Hamilton and Justin Morneau in 2008, Alex Rios in 2007, David Wright in 2006, and Bobby Abreu in 2005. After making the finals in the Home Run Derby, these five players have combined for 90 home runs pre All-Star Break (1,754 AB), and 29 home runs post All-Star Break (1,306 AB). Together, they averaged one home run for every 19.5 at bats before competing in the derby (1:19.5), compared to one home run in every 33.5 (1:33.5) at bats after competing as a finalist in the derby.
In addition to the apparent power outage, there appears to be a drop in batting average in some of the players, and we're not talking about a minor difference. In 2008, Hamilton batted .310 pre derby (377 AB), and .296 post derby (247 AB), while Morneau batted .323 pre (365 AB), and .267 post (247 AB). In 2007, David Wright saw a slight decline in batting average dropping from .316 to .305. In 2005, Bobby Abreu batted .307 pre (323 AB), and .260 post (265 AB), while Ivan Rodriguez batted .292 pre (298 AB), and .252 post (206 AB).
Like I stated earlier, not all the players involved in derby finals saw a decline in the second half, but plenty of them did, and the decline is quite drastic in many cases. In recent news, reigning champ Justin Morneau declined to participate in this year's derby, stating he wanted to rest and watch instead. In fact, since the 2001, only three finalist from the previous year participated in the derby the following season. These players are Ryan Howard, Sammy Sosa, and Jason Giambi, and we know that Sosa and Giambi were steroid users. Intersting numbers in my opinion. This season seems to follow suit, as Hamilton and Morneau will not be participating in the upcoming derby.
It's not time to panic, but if you end up owning one of this season's Home Run Derby finalists, perhaps you should take note, and keep an eye on that player for the remainder of the season. If you are looking to make trade but unsure on who you want to deal, maybe it's time to sell high on that derby finalist. After all, Josh Hamilton was the player everybody wanted after last year's derby, right? I believe a derby finalist makes for perfect trade bait. As we saw with Hamilton, the hype carried over into this season's draft, even after an awful second half from last season, no track record, and a history of drug abuse. It's amazing what hype can do. So don't just watch the Home Run Derby, use it as a tool to deal a player at his peak "hype", and you'll be one step closer to a championship.
posted by Dan Jay at
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
5 Comments:
nice article dan jay .
for the most part , i agree with your premise and conclusion .
however , trade me ryan howard now , and that way if he gets hurt during the all star festivities , you'll be ahead of the game .
chata
ha, ryan howard was one of the exceptions, but even the exceptions who didn't see a drop in numbers didn't see much of an increase either, so the spectrum or fluctuation is much larger when looking at drops instead of increases.
Also, it's not that guys are getting hurt, but I believe the derby has negative effects on the mechanics of a swing and the overall stamina of the players.
Excellent point Dan. I prefer that none of my players even go to the All-Star game and get a 3-day vacation, but the home run derby certainly seems to have an effect. Great article.
Dan,
Overall this was good, although some of these guys aren't traditional home run hitters (Pudge, Abreu, even Morneau has had some seasons in the 20s). Hamilton was on a pace that he just couldn't hold up, I believe he had over 90 RBI at the break. That and his potential led to his first round status this year. It is quite interesting to see some of the statistical declines though. Nice work, looking forward to the next one.
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