Our Expert Mock Draft 1/19/2009 Analysis & Strategy

On January 19th, I participated in a challenging expert mock draft at Mock Draft Central. There were many great experts recruited for this draft, and I ended up with the 11th pick. Overall my strategy going into the draft was to walk away from the draft with the a strong team based on batting average and saves, plus come out strong in the homeruns category and if possible stolen bases. The first thing I had to consider was who I was drafting against. I know the tendencies of many of the participants in the draft, but not all of them. I primarily focused on the two experts directly before and after me, Jason Sarnay at the 10th pick and Patrick DiCaprio at the 12th pick. I know both those individuals philosophies very well, so I tried my best to use that to my advantage. Below is the remaining draft order:

1. Joshua Randall, Baseball HQ
2. Derek Carty, The Hardball Times
3. J.P. Kastner, Creative Sports
4. Jason Pliml, MockDraftCentral.com
5. Ray Flowers, Fanball
6. Tom Kessenich, Fantasy Sports Magazine
7. Grey Albright, Razzball
8. Eric Hinz, Fake Teams
9. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires
10. Jason Sarney, Fantasy Phenoms
11. Todd Farino, Fantasy Baseball Search
12. Patrick DiCaprio

Please note that I was broadcasting this draft (www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru) for 2 hours to discuss my draft strategies with my listeners and I drafted with my co-hosts RC Rizza and Jason Swist. It was a fun, but at times a hectic evening. I will cover the expert mock draft by first explaining my overall draft strategy. Then discuss my thoughts on the two experts picking immediately around me. Finally, I will analyze all 23 of our picks and discuss why we picked the players and what we expect of them.

Overall Draft Strategy
As I mentioned earlier, the draft strategy I have adopted for 2009 is to target batting average and saves for category domination. After that I recommend grabbing power and speed throughout the draft when it is the best pick you could make. The hard part of this draft is you didn't pick a bench, just your starters. Normally you have a bench and you can make some great pickups that become starters, but every pick was for a starting roster spot in this 23-round draft. It is always my aim to come out of a draft with a very balanced team that is strong in the right places. If you don't come out with a well-balanced team you are in for trouble and most likely you will be very active with waivers from the start. You have to also keep in mind that only one team can win the league (like I needed to write that!), so you have to stand out from the rest during the draft or at least its your first chance to stand out from the pack. Even know I'll never use this team, I drafted as though it was my own expert league team and used every strategy I would use in a regular league draft, holding back nothing. The key to any draft this year is balancing youth with veterans, batting average with saves, and homeruns with steals. Last but not least, taking chances on players who can have a breakout season, but could also bust. Nobody ever wins a league because they avoid players who have a bust year. That can prevent you from losing your league, but not help you win it (I hope that makes sense). However, in order to WIN your championship you must have several breakout players on your roster.

Knowing The Experts Before and After Me
I drafted in-between two brutally smart experts in Jason Sarnay and Patrick DiCaprio. Even though they came to the draft well prepared and ready to pick, I felt I had a distinct advantage over both, and a really big advantage over Patrick DiCaprio. Both experts subscribe to sabermetrics, but Sarnay is fantastic at finding the sleepers and breakout players of the draft, while Patrick depends much more on sabermtrics to determine his picks. My advantage over Patrick was clear. I knew exactly how he'd pick because one of the many drawbacks of sabermetrics is everyone can use it and it doesn't change much from user to user. So as long as I was aware of the sabermetrics numbers of the players that were being considered, I had a good idea of what he might do and drafted accordingly. Even know I would NEVER use the majority of sabermetrics formulas, just like Patrick DiCaprio I have a subscription to Baseball Prospectus to get the great volumes of sabermetric statistics from them.

Draft Analysis
R1p11 - Matt Holiday, OF (OAK) - This was purely my pick and I felt Matt Holiday was a steal here. Why a guy capable of 30/30 lasted till the 11th pick I'm not sure. I think many experts were afraid that with Holiday leaving Colorado and the thin air it provides that his value would go down. It is true that Holiday hit more HRs at home, but he also stole more bases on the road. I felt he would probably not hit more than 25 homeruns, but he could steal 35 bases. Mainly because of the strikeout masters that will bat behind him and the fact Oakland will play small ball. With this pick I was able to get a great average player along with homeruns and stolen bases.

R2p2 - Ryan Howard, 1B (PHI) - Again, this was my pick and a great one at that. This was given to be by the poor strategy of DiCaprio letting him slide to me. How someone could take Josh Hamilton or Mark Teixeira before Howard is beyond me. Howard did bat poorly last year average wise, but the two years before that he had a combined batting average of .291. Howard brings to the table monster HRs and RBIs. I fully expect him to rebound his average back up to .270 to .278. Basically, allowing me to get Howard gave me two legitimate 1st round draft picks. This did hurt my strategy for batting average, but gave me instant power and RBI. I'll get average later.

r3p11 - Brandon Phillips 2B (CIN) - Rounds 3 and 4 were the only rounds in the draft that DiCaprio gave me trouble. So far Jason Sarnay was drafting great, but wasn't taking the players I wanted so far. That will change later. I decided to grab Phillips over Matt Kemp because I felt he was a great pick in the 3rd round and would give me both HRs and stolen bases. I certainly see the 27-year old player having a much better offensive year and he should easily hit .285 to .290 with a better cast around him. I figured since Matt Kemp's ADP was around 40 and he would be there for the wrap around pick and I would get average, but he wasn't. Patrick robbed me of Mat Kemp and he was an outstanding pick. The funny part was Aramis Ramirez was the next guy on my list and Patrick got him with the next wheel pick.

r4p2 Francisco Rodriguez RP (NYM) - I gambled here a bit. I wasn't sure he'd be there the next time around, so took him early after suffering two picks lost before that. Still, my philosophy is to dominate saves and I got a great, and in my opinion the #1 closer in fantasy baseball. Saves were now in my corner. Remember, closers bring more than saves unlike what other silly people think. They lower WHIP, ERA, and throw in some valuable Ks throughout the season.

r5p11 Jacoby Ellsbury OF (BOS) - This was a great pick that RC and I agreed on. Obviously if you know me, you know Ellsbury was my #1 sleeper last year. I think this season will be even better for him, especially average wise. Last year he slumped after American League pitchers discovered his weakness for swinging at bad pitches. By late August he worked through and killed in September. I got him with the 59th pick. His ADP is 60.

r6p2 - Scott Kazmir SP (TAM) - This was one of RC's picks and I liked it. It was our first starting pitcher and Kazmir is a strikeout machine who is getting better each year. I have to admit it was very early for Kazmir compared to his ADP of 85, but RC exhibited allot of confidence in him for 2009 and that was enough for me.

r7p11 Cliff Lee SP (CLE) - Now I wanted Cliff Lee in round 6, but I went with RC's pick instead. This is where knowing your opponents is critical. I knew that sabermetrics was not kind to Cliff Lee and many experts doubted him. It was a risk letting him bounce for nearly 2 rounds, but needless to say I got him with the 83rd overall pick. ADP, 68.

r8p2 Troy Tulowitzki SS (COL) - Jason and RC were all over Tulo. He is coming off the injury plagued year. We all felt he was a steal in the 8th round if he gets back to his 2007 numbers. That was a risk we were willing to take.

r9p11 Mariano Rivera RP (NYY) - What many considered the steal of the draft, we all agreed that if Rivera got to us with the 9th round pick we'd take him. We were worried a bit, but Carlos Delgado and Felix Hernandez went right before we took him. We think we got the best pick in the 9th round and may have stolen DiCaprio's 9th round pick.

r10p2 Chris Iannetta C (COL) - On our wheel pick we grabbed our first of 2 required catchers as Jason and I fully supported this pick. Chris Iannetta had a breakout year in 2008 and we expect him to build on that for 2009.

r11p11 Edwin Encarnacion 3B (CIN) - This was a tough call. RC wanted Zimmerman, but Jason and I felt that Edwin Encarnacion had more upside and was a safer pick. He is due for a breakout year and these are the kind of picks that win championships.

r12p2 Nelson Cruz OF (TEX) - This was my first sleeper pick. I really loved what I saw from Cruz last year and I believe he has finally matured as a MLB hitter. He was our 3rd of 5 required outfielders.

r13p11 Carlos Zambrano SP (CHC) - Round 13th saw us unanimously draft our 3rd SP in Zambrano. Why he was still on the board in round 13th is beyond me when I'm DRAFTING, but I luckily got him at a high value. SO far I am in line for a big strikeout season. His ADP is 110, we got him at 155.

r14p2 Milton Bradley OF (CHC) - We stayed with the Cubs theme and hoped to improve our average, while getting some power and a tiny bit of speed. Bradley has great talent and was a fantastic 14th round pick.

r15p11 Paul Konerko 1B (CHW) - I have to admit, Konerko is not a guy I would normally draft. However my friend Cory Schwartz really likes him this year, and we all agreed that round 15 was a great value to get him.

r16p2 - Jeff Clement C (SEA) RC is very high on Clement and I like him as well. The great advantage of Clement is that he is likely to play DH, so in fact we got an everyday catcher. He is risky after a poor rookie season, but he is highly touted.

r17p11 Kelly Johnson - We still needed a MI player, and Kelly Johnson was ripe for the picking. I loved him last year and he is a rapidly improving hitter, and we think he was a great find in the 17th round.

r18p2 Joe Saunders SP (LAA) ON the wheel pick we got one of most astonishing picks of the draft. How was a 2nd -year top prospect for the Angels (known for great pitching) still sitting out there after the 2008 season he had. I know sabermetrics is not kind to him and that is why sabermetrics fails owners. Solid pick.

r19p2 Gavin Floyd SP (CHW) - This was my pick, and the other guys weren't keen to it. I knew that Floyd would hang out there. I felt he was worth the 14th round, but I got him in the 19th. AN absolute steal in my book.

r20p11 Jeremy Hermida OF (FLA) - At this point we still needed two more outfielders and Jason with RC's help found Jeremy Hermida. Every year is a possible breakout year of this guy. Getting an OF with 20 homerun capability in the 20th round is pretty good.

r21p2 J.J. Putz RP (NYM) - ON the wheel pick, Putz was the brain child of Jason Swist and RC and I agreed with it. We draft Putz to show that you should back up your big investment closers if you can.

r22p11 Cameron Maybin OF (FLA) - This pick was a bit of a reach for my final outfielder. Maybin has all the talent in the world and he's in a great lineup to develop it. Very low risk in the 22nd round.

r23p2- Brad Penny SP (BOS) - Very risky player, but not a risky pick in the last round. We needed a pitcher and I grabbed Penny who is one year removed from back-to-back 16 win seasons. He is also on a winning team and is in his prime.


Overall, I thing we had a fantastic draft. I don't feel that with this team I will compete much in batting average, and I was only able to get 2 closers. However, the closers I got were big ones and should keep me strong in the saves category. I think my true strength in this draft is HRs, RBI, SBs, Wins, and strikeouts. Clearly my team will compete in those categories plus saves. I want to point out that in writing this article I meant no disrespect to any of the other owners, nor sabermetrics followers. I was simply giving analysis form my view of this one draft. Please leave us comments and let us know what you thought of our draft. You can view the whole draft here:

Expert Mock Draft - January 19th, 2009