2010 Closer Profile: Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

By Todd Farino, www.thecloserreport.com

Team: Boston Red Sox

Projections: 39-2-1.99-1.10-76 (SV-WIN-ERA-WHIP-K)

Average Draft Position: 68rd pick

Recommended Draft Round: 6

Team Saves Projection: 46

Injury Risk/Stability: 9/10

Top 50 Rank: #9

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Papelbon is your quintessential stud closer. Every year you know just about what output to expect from him. Likely 38-40 saves, ERA under 2.00, and 75+ strikeouts. He is one of the more consistent, healthy, and reliable closers and worth a high draft pick. The only thing that needs to be considered with Papelbon is the secret innings limit the team sets for him to avoid wearing out his arm with "tired arm". That limit is assumed to be 70 innings and does help in keeping him healthy and rested all year. I do know that he will never pitch three games in a row and likely only three out of five straight games.  However, the limit could impact your team near the end of the season where saves can mean life or death for your fantasy team.  Papelbon is a hard throwing closers who pounds the high strike zone to get the outs and keeps the hitters thinking with his average splitter.

The True Guru Strategy: His ADP has him at the right spot.  Personally I'd pass on him with better fantasy closers later in the draft, but if you want him round six is your spot.

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