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Monday, July 20, 2009

The Closers Report: BUY/SELL/TRADE


We have arrived at that point in the season where you have to evaluate your team and decide who stays and who goes. With league trade deadlines arriving, it's the right time to shake up your bullpen and get the value you need out of it not only with stats, but with trades.

The first thing you have to do is know where you stand in your league in the saves category. The other categories matter as well, but you can remain steady with strikeouts, WHIP, and ERA by adding free agents like LaTroy Hawkins, Ramon Troncoso, Ryan Madson, Ramon Ramirez, and others.

If you are in the top three in saves for your league and you have a strong lead, trade one closer. For example, in the Battle of The Fantasy Gods league I currently have a great bullpen with Broxton, Rivera, and KROD. I'm in second place in saves and I have no chance for first place, and I have an eight save lead on third place and a 22 save lead on 4th. I feel I should unload one of the closers and help my sagging offense. Likely, KROD would be the perfect closer to sell. Now if you are in the bottom four of your league in saves you should look to acquire a closer and grab some easy roto points. Here is our list of closers you should look to acquire, trade for, and the closers you must hold onto no matter the cost.

Closers to HOLD

Jonathan Broxton - Broxton does have the bad toe, but he is on a team that wins regularly and leads all closers in strikeouts.

Joe Nathan - Nathan has been the best closer in the league since May. He hasn't given up a run since May 15. He is the anchor of any bullpen and a must hold.

Mariano Rivera - I've been telling you BUY Rivera nearly all season, but now you have to hold him. He has been on fire and like Nathan, he is an anchor of any bullpen.

Huston Street - Street lost his job in the first week of the season, but since he has regained the job he has been outstanding. He hasn't blown a save since June 2, and that was the only one of the season.

Jonathan Papelbon - You have to worry about his inning limit, but you have to love his situation. The All-Star closer is on a team that wins constantly and he isn't afraid to face anyone.

George Sherrill - Sherrill doesn't get allot of save opportunities, but when he does he gets the job done. All year he has given two runs in all 20 saves he has recorded. His ERA would be NIL if you remove the blown saves and non-save opportunities.

Trevor Hoffman - He is quietly having a great season, but you probably wouldn't get much trade value for him so you have to hold. Hoffman's biggest problem is the lack of strikeouts. He has only recorded 21 strikeouts in 27.1 innings. Second biggest problem, lack of innings.

Brian Wilson - The San Francisco Giants are in the playoff hunt and you can thank Wilson for that. He has been outstanding this season and is one of the more underrated closers in fantasy baseball. You have to hold him.

Matt Capps - I haven't liked Capps all year, but you have to hold the guy. His ERA and WHIP are in orbit, but he is getting saves. The Pirates look like a team that can play spoiler, so Capps should end with at least 35 saves.

Andrew Bailey - Bailey has great stuff, but won't likely attract much attention in trade talks. Still, he should record plenty of saves and his strikeout totals should be alright.


Closers to BUY

Brian Fuentes - Fuentes doesn't have the greatest numbers, but he leads the league in saves with 28. The Angels are in it to stay and have the staff to win. Fuentes could get 50 saves by season's end.

Rafael Soriano - Even though it's not official, Soriano is clearly the closer in Atlanta. If you can sneak up on a Soriano owner who isn't sure either, and trade for him you would be lucky. His numbers are outstanding with 60 strikeouts and an incredibly low WHIP. Most owners only pay attention to saves, and Soriano offers much more.

David Aardsma - Aardsma is an anomaly. He doesn't have that great of stuff and his fastball is straight. However, he is a strikeout machine and he is closing for the Mariners and they are in it to win it. Quietly he has accrued over 50 strikeouts and has the fourth most strikeouts of all closers. Buy Big-D.

Kevin Gregg - Gregg has been hot over the past two months. In April and May he only had eight saves. Through June and and so far July, he has 10 saves and has lowered his ERA 1.39 in that span.

Fernando Rodney - The Tigers are playing well and even better, they are pitching well. Rodney pitches fire when he is in a save opportunity and gets hit hard when he comes into a regular game. Grab Rodney if the owner is offering. He could get 40 saves by season's end.

JP Howell - Howell is the closer in Tampa Bay and he As long as the Rays can get hot, so should Howell.

Leo Nunez - This is a bit of a risky call, but there is a chance that Nunez can hold the closer job even when Lindstrom comes back. The Marlins haven't been winning lately, but they will get hot and Nunez should start piling up saves. You shouldn't have to pay too much for him.

Jose Valverde - Valverde has been good since coming off the DL and novice managers may be willing to sell him very cheap because of his lack of saves and recent chances. The Astros should give Valverde 17 to 22 more opportunities and he could still end up with 30 saves.

Closers to SELL

Francisco Rodriguez - He is still a top notch closer, but the Mets are far too inconsistent at winning to keep him for his value. You can get allot in trade for him, much more than he will be worth the rest of the season.

Heath Bell - Bell has been the class of the 2009 closers, but his value is severely dropping closing for the Padres. As they do every year the Padres are selling players, couple that with a injury depleted pitching staff and that equals fewer save chances. He has two saves in July. Sell him while his value is high.

Ryan Franklin - Again, a pitcher on a team that is losing. Even if the Cardinals start winning more, Franklin cannot keep his numbers where they are. His ERA and WHIP are far below 1.00 and the saves are slowing down a bit. Eventually something has to give.

Francisco Cordero - Cordero has been outstanding all season, but he is on a team that is young and one that will likely sell some players. That does not equal more saves and he hasn't been lighting up the strikeout category either with only 31 Ks in 38 innings. His split stats suggest that his strikeouts and other numbers will get even worse.

Bobbie Jenks - Jenks isn't having his best season, but he is still a reliable closer. However, I feel he should be moved with the White Sox and Jenks struggling. His ERA is nearly one point above his career ERA and he hasn't been pitching well lately.

Joakim Soria - This just isn't the season to own Soria. So far he has only 14 saves primarily do to injury, but with the Royals performing the annual fold till next year routine, Soria won't likely get 14 more saves. It is about time you get what you can for the closer.

Frank Francisco - Ever since the Rangers rested Francisco after his DL stint I have been SELL on the guy. You just don't want to worry about a reoccurring injury and a pitcher that rarely gets chances. The Rangers do win, but they tend to win big or lose big. Sell Francisco, he'd be lucky as a four-leaf clover to get 28 total saves.

Brad Lidge - I don't know who would buy him, but he is far more trouble then he is worth. Unload the dead weight.

Kerry Wood - The Indians are done, throw the leftovers in the doggie bag. Wood was awful before the Indians gave up and he will be worse after. Sell him, but don't expect much.

Matt Lindstrom - This is a hard sell, but do it if you can. He is currently on the DL and he has had a tough season. He likely could lose the job to Nunez even when he comes back. Even if he keeps the job, still sell him.

Chad Qualls - He isn't a closer and never should have been. He did have a great start, but the Diamondbacks are terrible this year and even know they have been better lately, Qualls hasn't seen much benefit from it. Qualls had 12 saves through May and only five since June 1.

Scott Downs - Get value for him while you can. He has only nine saves and the way the Blue Jays play he may not get 16! Halladay pitches complete games and if they trade him that still hurts Downs. The rest of their staff are rookies and also consider the fact he is an injury risk.

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