Beware of your 2009 Extenze Expert Choice
The 2009 season is upon us. Right now fantasy baseball fans are done with all their drafts and are now settling in with their new and exciting teams. The first task, hopefully a successful draft is over, but now comes the daunting PART DEUX managing your team.
All of us need a little help when managing our team. Whether its a closer report, injury updates, minor leaguers, hot players, or just a waiver pickup, we all need a bit of help. Most managers are probably searching out the best in-season information sites and we have a few helpful warnings, bits of advice, and recommendations for you.
Before I get started on this informative and fun soap box rant let me say that there are very few true experts in this industry. Guys like Joe Sheehan, Ron Shandler, Cory Schwartz, and a few others are experts. The rest of us should call ourselves fantasy baseball analysts. I think you have to earn being called an expert. Just putting up a website or leaching off another true expert isn't a definition of an expert.
Also, note this. In the end, we are all just guessing. Maybe my guess or a true expert like Ron Shandler's guess are more educated than the average joe, but it's still a guess. Everyone will have successes and failures, but what you should look for is consistency for winnings. That is the ultimate formula.
So now we get to the list of analysts to avoid. This might be awkward, and its totally up to you to decide which analyst you think gives you the best chances to win your league. However, there are guys out there that just aren't what they seem to be and here is a fun way to spot them.
Avoid these types of fantasy baseball analsts:
The Extenze Expert - We've all seen those Extenze commercials for the pills that supposedly make you more of a man. Yea, right. In the commercials they claim to have sold millions, billions, trillions of capsules. It sounds like a Obama budget. Then they interview guys off the street who say, "oh yea I buy it." They are full of crap and so are fantasy baseball analysts who use the same marketing tactics. You will see guys who put up a site, fund it well and get all their buddies to say how good they are. They may even tell you they've sold thousands of draft kits and are the best ever. The quick clue to ask yourself to spot these types is, "Have I ever heard of this guy?" Better yet, Google search the analyst. If you don't find much odds are he's a newbie disguising himself as a expert. You don't want to waste your time with that type. Unless, you love playing risky.
The Sabermetrics Expert - Listen, I know you are saying, here's goes Todd again bashing Sabermetrics. You all know I don't trust the system and for good reason. Any Sabermetrics expert will tell you that it was invented by Bill James and led the Red Sox to the World Series Championship in 2004. They are right, but lying. Current Sabermetrics is a different beast from the brilliance of Bill James. They are right about the Red Sox, but using Sabermetrics with Scouting combined with huge payrolls and a great minor league system won the World Series for the Red Sox.
Sorry, but that doesn't apply in fantasy baseball. True Sabermetrics can't and wasn't designed for fantasy baseball because in fantasy baseball there are just too many variables every season. That is the failure of the system and why I'll tell you, stay clear of DEVOTED 100% Sabermetric guys. Come on, how do you calculate formulas that account for batting against more ace pitchers in one year over the next. How about facing an improved lineup 19 times a year for a pitcher. How about playing with injuries or better yet weird weather. Trust me, there are countless other variables you just can't account for and that is the utter failure of Sabermetrics. Nonetheless, some believe and God Bless them for trying.
I'm-With-Him-Expert - This is a funny one and a short one. You will get the guys who attach themselves to a well known expert (most likely paying him) and claim to be an instant expert themselves. How they support the relationship is by putting up a blog or the new hot item is a podcast on Blog Talk Radio. I mean, come on all that you need to qualify for the BTR show is an email address. We recommend you check his fantasy resume. If it stacks up or he has years of service, maybe he's the real deal. Don't go for the I play in NFBC crap. The NFBC is great, but it's tough to count that as true fantasy baseball. When you have $1500 or $3000 on the line, you aren't playing for fantasy baseball supremacy you are gambling. Trust me, people run their teams MUCH different when huge sums of money are on the line. I prefer leagues with trophies or small cash prizes. That way the competition and your self is focused on winning and not your bankroll. Try Vegas, it's easier.
Quantity of Quality - Finally you have the sites that think by having 20 writers that they are all of a sudden better. Not everyone can put together a awesome collection of writers like RotoExperts.com has, so buyer beware. Lots of free information does equate to great analysis, and probably can buy you a Big Mac. Make sure that the writers are real and again have resumes. What I mean by resumes to clarify; how about proof of actually winning, playing along time, and predictions they've made for the last year or two at least.
Here are a list of expert and sites we highly recommend:
The Fantasy Man Mike Kuchera
Roto Experts
Fighting Chance Fantasy
Baseball Prospectus
RotoRob.com
Scott Engel
Advanced Fantasy Baseball
Chris Mulligan -Behind The Plate Fantasy
Geoff Stein - Mock Draft Central
Cory Schwartz of the famed Fantasy 411
Al Ohhara FSRU.com
RC Rizza Junkyardjake.com
The guys at KFFL
Ray Flowers
and of course myself at http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/
There are more, but in order to end this article I'll leave the rest for you to find for your Easter Egg Hunt!
Happy Easter,
Todd "The True Guru" Farino
All of us need a little help when managing our team. Whether its a closer report, injury updates, minor leaguers, hot players, or just a waiver pickup, we all need a bit of help. Most managers are probably searching out the best in-season information sites and we have a few helpful warnings, bits of advice, and recommendations for you.
Before I get started on this informative and fun soap box rant let me say that there are very few true experts in this industry. Guys like Joe Sheehan, Ron Shandler, Cory Schwartz, and a few others are experts. The rest of us should call ourselves fantasy baseball analysts. I think you have to earn being called an expert. Just putting up a website or leaching off another true expert isn't a definition of an expert.
Also, note this. In the end, we are all just guessing. Maybe my guess or a true expert like Ron Shandler's guess are more educated than the average joe, but it's still a guess. Everyone will have successes and failures, but what you should look for is consistency for winnings. That is the ultimate formula.
So now we get to the list of analysts to avoid. This might be awkward, and its totally up to you to decide which analyst you think gives you the best chances to win your league. However, there are guys out there that just aren't what they seem to be and here is a fun way to spot them.
Avoid these types of fantasy baseball analsts:
The Extenze Expert - We've all seen those Extenze commercials for the pills that supposedly make you more of a man. Yea, right. In the commercials they claim to have sold millions, billions, trillions of capsules. It sounds like a Obama budget. Then they interview guys off the street who say, "oh yea I buy it." They are full of crap and so are fantasy baseball analysts who use the same marketing tactics. You will see guys who put up a site, fund it well and get all their buddies to say how good they are. They may even tell you they've sold thousands of draft kits and are the best ever. The quick clue to ask yourself to spot these types is, "Have I ever heard of this guy?" Better yet, Google search the analyst. If you don't find much odds are he's a newbie disguising himself as a expert. You don't want to waste your time with that type. Unless, you love playing risky.
The Sabermetrics Expert - Listen, I know you are saying, here's goes Todd again bashing Sabermetrics. You all know I don't trust the system and for good reason. Any Sabermetrics expert will tell you that it was invented by Bill James and led the Red Sox to the World Series Championship in 2004. They are right, but lying. Current Sabermetrics is a different beast from the brilliance of Bill James. They are right about the Red Sox, but using Sabermetrics with Scouting combined with huge payrolls and a great minor league system won the World Series for the Red Sox.
Sorry, but that doesn't apply in fantasy baseball. True Sabermetrics can't and wasn't designed for fantasy baseball because in fantasy baseball there are just too many variables every season. That is the failure of the system and why I'll tell you, stay clear of DEVOTED 100% Sabermetric guys. Come on, how do you calculate formulas that account for batting against more ace pitchers in one year over the next. How about facing an improved lineup 19 times a year for a pitcher. How about playing with injuries or better yet weird weather. Trust me, there are countless other variables you just can't account for and that is the utter failure of Sabermetrics. Nonetheless, some believe and God Bless them for trying.
I'm-With-Him-Expert - This is a funny one and a short one. You will get the guys who attach themselves to a well known expert (most likely paying him) and claim to be an instant expert themselves. How they support the relationship is by putting up a blog or the new hot item is a podcast on Blog Talk Radio. I mean, come on all that you need to qualify for the BTR show is an email address. We recommend you check his fantasy resume. If it stacks up or he has years of service, maybe he's the real deal. Don't go for the I play in NFBC crap. The NFBC is great, but it's tough to count that as true fantasy baseball. When you have $1500 or $3000 on the line, you aren't playing for fantasy baseball supremacy you are gambling. Trust me, people run their teams MUCH different when huge sums of money are on the line. I prefer leagues with trophies or small cash prizes. That way the competition and your self is focused on winning and not your bankroll. Try Vegas, it's easier.
Quantity of Quality - Finally you have the sites that think by having 20 writers that they are all of a sudden better. Not everyone can put together a awesome collection of writers like RotoExperts.com has, so buyer beware. Lots of free information does equate to great analysis, and probably can buy you a Big Mac. Make sure that the writers are real and again have resumes. What I mean by resumes to clarify; how about proof of actually winning, playing along time, and predictions they've made for the last year or two at least.
Here are a list of expert and sites we highly recommend:
The Fantasy Man Mike Kuchera
Roto Experts
Fighting Chance Fantasy
Baseball Prospectus
RotoRob.com
Scott Engel
Advanced Fantasy Baseball
Chris Mulligan -Behind The Plate Fantasy
Geoff Stein - Mock Draft Central
Cory Schwartz of the famed Fantasy 411
Al Ohhara FSRU.com
RC Rizza Junkyardjake.com
The guys at KFFL
Ray Flowers
and of course myself at http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/
There are more, but in order to end this article I'll leave the rest for you to find for your Easter Egg Hunt!
Happy Easter,
Todd "The True Guru" Farino
posted by The True GURU at
Monday, April 06, 2009
2 Comments:
I'm curious what you call "100% sabermetrics." Do you mean a site that only posts "fancy" stats like K/BB and VORP? Most sabermetric places I know of use "normal" stats too, like SLG and OBP, and they talk about growth in numbers and experience and maturation. As a matter of fact, SLG and OBP used to be considered "nonstandard" stats themselves, with OBP becoming popular due to Bill James.
I agree with you that a good fantasy player mixes saber with everything else available. I like to use this example: A pitcher might work in a new pitch, and "old-school" scouts (and people who actually watch the game) will notice it first; then, after a month or more of use, sabermetrics can be applied to see if it's helping (or hurting) his overall numbers in any way.
I'm just not sure that anyone is "100% saber." Some people focus on it, perhaps overly, but it's a worthwhile pursuit. To write it off completely is as bad as using it exclusively.
Kevin,
An exclusive Sabermetrics guy is one who uses the system entirely to predict his player projections and therefore runs his team from the system. I know many Sabermetrics guys who have rarely watched baseball let along use another method with Sabermetrics. I think you need to watch the players over just plugging numbers into a formula.
I do know that Bill James brought to light stats like OBP and SLG amongst others. Those are mainstream Sabermetric stats that are extremely useful.
I also use ones like K rate, FB%, and a few others for pitchers. However insane ones like BABIP, PECOTA, LIPS, DIPS, Linedrive Rate, and others are just stupid for fantasy baseball and should be avoided.
I think what is always missed in what I say is Bill James invented Sabermetrics to assist scouting, not replace it. Fantasy Baseball analysts have transformed it into a scouting tool and it can't do that.
For fantasy baseball, Sabermetrics doesn't work on a consistent basis.
Thanks Kevin for the post!
Todd Farino
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