Todd-o-logue: Do Expert Mock Drafts Have Any Credibility Left?
Expert mock drafts are the latest trend over the past few years. Alex Rodriguez would call them "fashionable" to say the least. Of course, maybe they are the designer steroids for fantasy drafting? Over the past few years, the art of gathering 12 or more experts in the industry and watching them battle it out over 23+ rounds of fantasy baseball drafting is all the rage (no pun intended) . Each pick is carefully considered like a Russian chess match and all the participants are trying to claim check mate with each pick. For the novice to intermediate fantasy manager, expert mock drafts are a wealth of knowledge and useful information. Of course, this is only possible when the experts draft as if it was real world.
I've read some disturbing revelations on blogs that everyday fantasy managers are starting to look at expert mock drafts as jokes. They claim that experts are afraid to use their true draft strategies for many reasons including not giving up their methods or secrets. Another reason I've read is experts don't like to go outside the lines because the draft will be analyzed and examined by so many that it may hurt their reputation. I'm sure I'm leaving out a few other reasons, but you get the point.
I have to agree with the bloggers that those are legitimate concerns of the managers analyzing these drafts for valuable insight. Heck, its' even been discussed in our podcast chat room. Now, I take my expert mock drafts seriously. The only time I go off my strategy is when I want to make a point with a pick. I'll take a guy I probably wouldn't take with that pick in a real world draft, but I do it to make a point on the value of that specific player. I will always be prepared and draft to be the best of my abilities. I will always draft according to my strategy and not go along with the ADP as to not risk looking bad. Like last year, one site puts out a report that Albert Pujols might have surgery and all of a sudden 10 or more web sites are saying Pujols isn't first round material going along with the trending data. Bad advice obviously, and great if you stuck to your guns and drafted him later than usual cause he fell to you.
Now there are some nominee's for Nimrod of the year because of their impressive decisions on how to execute a expert mock draft. These Nimrods or dormin's if you like to it backwards or NimrodEH! in Pig Latin. Actual Nimrodonian experts as I refer to them that will use an expert mock draft as a testing ground for a risky not plausable draft strategy they have devised in their evil lair in expert LaLa Land. Now, that is perfectly A-OK if we are just in a random mock draft, but this is an expert mock draft! There could be novices that are so green they barely know all the roster spots, categories, let alone a sensible draft strategy. So they watch the best-of-the-best go at it, hoping to reach their impossible dream of a championship. Then one of the experts, one of the best-of-the-best drafts 8 pitchers in the first 8 rounds. Wow, please take a moment and ask yourself, what was the Nimrod thinking? This man who clearly is Nimrodonian in every aspect basically just screwed up an entire expert mock draft that the other 11 experts were taken very serious and really ended up making the whole draft a joke. Allot of confused watchers went home that night thinking, what the heck was that all about? That was experts?
I'm sure this expert learned plenty from trying the strategy in a controlled atmosphere, but is this a serious strategy you would ever deploy in a real draft? My, my, my...
Again I stress, practicing strategies is smart, but practice then execute to the public, not the other way around. I think all of us "experts" enjoy being invited and participating in expert mock drafts. Certainly I feel a responsibility to not only draft my proven strategy, but to also draft responsibly. Especially knowing that others are trying to learn from these drafts. If we take expert mock drafts seriously, then they will take them seriously. I for one want to restore the credibility of expert mock drafts. Please for the love of all humanity, no Wacko Jacko draft strategies at expert mock drafts anymore. Can we stop giving good advice, that is really bad advice. Can we stop thinking that in order to be the best expert that we must be creative and spunky with our craziest strategies. Slow down there James Dean. I promise you are the only Rebel without a cause who thinks that a risky experimental strategy during an expert mock draft is a cool idea. Flip your collar down and go home.
I've read some disturbing revelations on blogs that everyday fantasy managers are starting to look at expert mock drafts as jokes. They claim that experts are afraid to use their true draft strategies for many reasons including not giving up their methods or secrets. Another reason I've read is experts don't like to go outside the lines because the draft will be analyzed and examined by so many that it may hurt their reputation. I'm sure I'm leaving out a few other reasons, but you get the point.
I have to agree with the bloggers that those are legitimate concerns of the managers analyzing these drafts for valuable insight. Heck, its' even been discussed in our podcast chat room. Now, I take my expert mock drafts seriously. The only time I go off my strategy is when I want to make a point with a pick. I'll take a guy I probably wouldn't take with that pick in a real world draft, but I do it to make a point on the value of that specific player. I will always be prepared and draft to be the best of my abilities. I will always draft according to my strategy and not go along with the ADP as to not risk looking bad. Like last year, one site puts out a report that Albert Pujols might have surgery and all of a sudden 10 or more web sites are saying Pujols isn't first round material going along with the trending data. Bad advice obviously, and great if you stuck to your guns and drafted him later than usual cause he fell to you.
Now there are some nominee's for Nimrod of the year because of their impressive decisions on how to execute a expert mock draft. These Nimrods or dormin's if you like to it backwards or NimrodEH! in Pig Latin. Actual Nimrodonian experts as I refer to them that will use an expert mock draft as a testing ground for a risky not plausable draft strategy they have devised in their evil lair in expert LaLa Land. Now, that is perfectly A-OK if we are just in a random mock draft, but this is an expert mock draft! There could be novices that are so green they barely know all the roster spots, categories, let alone a sensible draft strategy. So they watch the best-of-the-best go at it, hoping to reach their impossible dream of a championship. Then one of the experts, one of the best-of-the-best drafts 8 pitchers in the first 8 rounds. Wow, please take a moment and ask yourself, what was the Nimrod thinking? This man who clearly is Nimrodonian in every aspect basically just screwed up an entire expert mock draft that the other 11 experts were taken very serious and really ended up making the whole draft a joke. Allot of confused watchers went home that night thinking, what the heck was that all about? That was experts?
I'm sure this expert learned plenty from trying the strategy in a controlled atmosphere, but is this a serious strategy you would ever deploy in a real draft? My, my, my...
Again I stress, practicing strategies is smart, but practice then execute to the public, not the other way around. I think all of us "experts" enjoy being invited and participating in expert mock drafts. Certainly I feel a responsibility to not only draft my proven strategy, but to also draft responsibly. Especially knowing that others are trying to learn from these drafts. If we take expert mock drafts seriously, then they will take them seriously. I for one want to restore the credibility of expert mock drafts. Please for the love of all humanity, no Wacko Jacko draft strategies at expert mock drafts anymore. Can we stop giving good advice, that is really bad advice. Can we stop thinking that in order to be the best expert that we must be creative and spunky with our craziest strategies. Slow down there James Dean. I promise you are the only Rebel without a cause who thinks that a risky experimental strategy during an expert mock draft is a cool idea. Flip your collar down and go home.
posted by The True GURU at
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
3 Comments:
Todd,
Nice article and an interesting take on Patrick's 8 pitcher strategy. Taking pitchers early is an interesting strategy and one that is out of the box but not one that I consider to be "wacko". Many people feel that taking closers early, a strategy you prefer, is an unconventional strategy but one that you prefer and that is OK as well.
As far as the "expert" mock draft you are referring, I would not consider that a true expert mock draft. There were some good people in the room, including your brother Chris, but 5 of the participants were readers and listeners of the Fantasy Phenoms. This is not to say that those participants do not know fantasy baseball and players but they do not write or broadcast on any site.
Unconventional strategies in mock drafts will continue to be debated and rightly so. I believe as long as the ADP can be justified then the integrity of the draft is not compromised. On the other hand, if you draft ERic Chavez in the 5th round to make a point, that is another matter.
Interesting take Todd and best of luck in your fantasy leagues this year.
Rhett Oldham, Fantasy Pros 911
Rhett,
My article (Todd-o-logue on the podcast) had little to do with Patrick's draft and more to do with the credibility of expert mock drafts. Right now managers are viewing EMDs (Expert Mock Draft) as a joke. They feel we don't take them seriously, so they have lost allot of credibility. What adds fuel to that fire is drafting like this, which is just as bad as drafting Chavez in the 5th round. Don't you think the wacko strategy Patrick used only feeds those thoughts that EMDs are nothing but a joke?
I'm cool with the fact that the only people who disagree with my 4 paragraph article are the ones who are upset with the less than 1 paragraph example I used from Patrick's draft. I used that example because it was sent to me by multiple people, 2 of which didn't even know I knew Patrick.
As far as your comment considering my closer strategy, well last year you backed my theory (funny how things change over a year). As a matter of fact, many in this industry are willing to draft closers early, but me taking 1 closer maybe 1 round to early isn't destroying the credibility of a draft or my drafted team. Also, I've used the strategy in real drafts and I've won with those teams. I'm sorry Rhett, but drafting closers early is now widely accepted, and not taking them early is now the wrong theory. I'd love to see Patrick use his theory in a real draft.
Rhett, maybe you or Patrick should write on his draft theory that he actually used last year in the 2008 Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. If you don't remember, my co-host at the time developed a "revolutionary strategy" as he called it to take all middle relievers, and all offense the first 10 rounds. The theory sounded good to him, but in the end he finished in dead last place and damaged the integrity of the draft because he was drafting like the other 11 managers.
I think Rhett that you need to learn that this industry isn't always about defending your buddy, but instead it's about defending the integrity of the industry and the fantasy baseball managers from bad sites, advice, and articles in general. I've been doing that now for 6 years on FBS, and I think I know what I'm doing.
Thanks for the post.
Todd,
Thanks for responding. I did not say that taking closers early was a bad strategy but some do not agree with that and consider the strategy,"unconventional". It is a way you like to draft, you have had success with that and that is great for you. Not being critical of that and I have seen people take closers early in numerous mock drafts.
Not defending Patrick's strategy per say but I do find it interesting. I have taken four starting pitchers in the first 8 rounds before and have fared pretty well with that strategy. I believe he still ended up in the middle of the pack based on the projections so it wasn't a total wash. Just because people do things differently in a casual mock draft like this one doesn't make it bad IMO, just makes it different.
Do "wacko" strategies in an expert mock draft make them a joke? Good question. We had an expert mock draft recently where Baseball HQ picked some player way above there ADP and were panned for it. Ironically, he won the projections battle with those picks. People talked about the merits of those selections for a long time and it was interesting discussion which I think is the purpose of mck drafts.
Didn't know about Patrick's middle reliever strategy but I have seen it before. I am not aware of everything that went on in that league last year but it is my understanding that many lost interest due to many factors and conflicts. Also that strategy could and still is used effectively. Just because a last place finish in one league occurs does not make the strategy bad on its own merit, many factors go into losing a league.
The purpose of my response may have been misinterpreted. It was to demonstrate that not everyone agrees with certain strategies and debate is OK. It was not to attack you personally for a strategy you use but to show that people may not agree with what you do but is fun to debate the topic. Fantasy baseball leagues are won with various strategies, not one proven one.
Finally, I agree that "expert" mock drafts have lost some credibility but for a different reason than you. Due to the overwhelming frequency of mock drafts, the higher end experts do not participate in them as often which leads to a diluted product.
Todd, nice article and very thought provocting...I appreciate your response and best of luck in 2009
Rhett Oldham Fantasy Pros 911
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