Pitchers That Could Surprise, Disappoint

By Scout C.P. Staley (Pro Fantasy Baseball)

5 Reasons you can wait to build a pitching staff

These guys aren’t known as fantasy studs, but they have the potential to pitch like one. The best part? Most should be available after round 10, meaning you can use early round picks to build your offense and STILL have a solid pitching staff-as long as some of these pitchers make it onto your roster:

1. Ricky Nolasco-Nolasco was fantastic for the Marlins last year, ending the season 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA, 186K, 42 BB, 1.10 WHIP. His wins may fluctuate (10-4 pre All Star Break, 5-4 post All Star Break), but amazing peripherals after the break placed Nolasco among the top pitchers in fantasy baseball ( 95 IP, 3.29 ERA, 98 K’s, 12 BB, 0.99 WHIP, .232 opponent’s batting avg.). 25 other pitchers might be taken before his name is called on draft day, but Nolasco has a chance to pitch like a top 10 SP. Expect 14-16 Wins, 3.75 era, 160+ K’s and a WHIP south of 1.20.
   
2. Matt Cain-A quick look at Cain’s 15-30 record over the last two years and it’s easy to view him as a young pitcher struggling to find his way. A closer look reveals that Cain is on the verge of a break out. Aside from Wins/Losses, his 2008 numbers were terrific: 21 quality starts, a 3.76 ERA and 186 strike outs in 217 innings. Cain needs to continue to improve his control (91 BB), but with his skills, he could easily win 14+ games this year. Expect 14-16 Wins, a 3.70 era, 170 K’s and a WHIP around 1.30.


3. Scott Baker-Baker is on the cusp of becoming a household name in fantasy circles, but he’s still someone you’ll be able to grab in the middle rounds of your draft. Despite missing most of May, Baker ended the season with an 11-4 record, 172 IP, 3.43 era, 141 K’s, 43 BB, 1.18 WHIP. Factor in an average month’s stats to make up for the time he missed in May, and Baker would have been close to 15 W’s, a 3.60 era, 160 K’s, and a WHIP around 1.20. Expect that same level production in 2009.

4. Brett Myers-The last 2 seasons have been tough on Myers. He bounced between the starting rotation and the bull pen in 2007, then returned to the starting rotation and pitched horribly to start 2008 (3-9, 5.84 era). After the All Star break though, Myers found himself. Post Break he was 7-4, 3.08 era, 75 K’s, 21 BB, 1.16 WHIP; much closer to the way Myers pitched from 2005-2007. 14-16 wins, 3.80 era, and 160+ K’s are reasonable expectations for 2009.

5.Ted Lilly-Never flashy, and often overlooked, Lilly is the type of veteran that you don’t appreciate until he’s on your fantasy staff. Since arriving in Chicago in 2007, Lilly has averaged 16 wins, a 3.96 era, 179 K’s, and a 1.18 WHIP. Patience is required on days when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, but at the end of the year, it will all be worth it. Expect 15 Wins, an era around 4, 160+ K’s, and a WHIP around 1.20.

5 Comebacks that can be had for a discount

1. Eric Bedard-Coming into last season, Bedard was among the top 5 pitchers in fantasy baseball. However, his season lasted just 81 innings before a shoulder injury shut him down for the season. There was some worry that Bedard had a torn labrum, but that was not the case. Instead, Bedard had off season surgery to remove a cyst from his shoulder and some scar tissue from around his labrum. So far this spring, Bedard has been throwing without pain, and looks like he’ll be ready to contribute at or shortly after the season starts. Keep an eye on his progress, because a healthy Bedard can give you 14-16 Wins, 190+ K’s, an era under 3.5, and a sub 1.2 WHIP.

2. Aaron Harang-Coming off back to back 16 win 200K seasons, big things were expected of Harang last year. Instead his 2008 season was a disaster. He finished 6-17, 4.78 era in 184 innings. Part of Harang’s struggles can be attributed to shoulder problems that flared up in July. To his credit, Harang tried to pitch through the pain, but ultimately landed on the DL. He showed signs of life after returning from the DL in mid-August, posting a 3.00 era, 25:9 K:BB ratio, and a 1.14 WHIP for the month of September. If he can regain the form he showed from in 2006 and 2007, Harang will be in line for a 15 Win, 180+K season.

3. John Maine-Maine missed 10 starts in 2008 due to nagging shoulder problems, and then had off season shoulder surgery to remove bone spurs from his throwing shoulder. Maine is not a fantasy ace, and has occasional bouts of wildness, but he can be a very useful fantasy pitcher that should be available in the latter half of most drafts. A return to his 2007 numbers (15-10, 3.91 era, 180 K’s) isn't out of the question, making Maine a nice late round choice.

4. Josh Johnson-Johnson missed all of 2007 and half of 2008 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his performance in the second half of 2008 showed that he was all the way back. Johnson went 7-1 with a 3.61 era, 77 K’s, 27 BB in 87.1 innings after the All Star break last year. Still just 25, Johnson could take another step forward and establish himself as a solid SP2. If he’s healthy, a 14 W, sub 3.70 era, 150+ K, 1.30 WHIP season is within reach.

5. Fausto Carmona-Carmona was a big disappointment in 2008 after a breakout 19 Win season in 2007. A hip injury, coupled with serious control issues, kept Carmona from helping fantasy owners last year. Carmona seems to be over his hip injury, and his control issues may be solved as well. A flaw in his delivery, which contributed to his control problems, was reportedly fixed during the off season. If he’s healthy, 14 Wins, 130 K’s, sub 3.5 era, and 1.35 WHIP are all within reach. If Carmona is still available during the late rounds, he’s worth the gamble.
   

5 Surprises from the Second Half of ‘08

1. Randy Johnson-Post All Star Break numbers: 5-3, 2.41 era, 78 K’s, 16 BB, 1.05 WHIP in 86 innings. Johnson was outstanding during the second half of 2008. The concerns are well known: he’s 45, and has a history of back problems. Still, with reports that his back is healthy, and a move to pitcher friendly AT&T park, Johnson could be in line for a nice season.

2. Ubaldo Jimenez-Post All Star Break numbers: 8-3, 3.68 era, 78 K’s, 42 BB, 1.30 WHIP in 85.2 innings. Jimenez, who just turned 24, struggled in the first half of 2008. He owned a 4-9 record at the break, with poor control. That he managed to finish the year with a 12-12 is a testament to just how well he pitched in the second half of the season. The difference came from improved control. Jimenez cut his walks and increased his strikeouts. He ended the second half sporting an 8.23 K/9 ratio, and struck out better than a batter per inning in September with 35 K’s in 31 innings.

3. Paul Maholm- Post All Star Break numbers: 3-4, 3.40 era, 64 K’s, 31 BB, 1.28 WHIP in 87.1 innings. Maholm’s record after the break won’t get anyone excited but consider this: From August 1^st through the end of the season, Maholm went at least 6 innings in 9 of 10 starts (the other he went 5.1), and held opponents to less than 3 runs in 8 of those 10 starts. Playing for Pittsburgh means wins could be tough to come by, but Maholm could take another step forward and become a very useful fantasy pitcher this season.

4. Jorge De La Rosa-Post All Star Break numbers: 7-3, 3.08 era, 68 K’s 38 BB, 1.33 WHIP, in 73 innings. De La Rosa was traded to Colorado at the end of April in a deal that few paid any attention to and his 7.26 era before the All Star Break showed why. But something strange after the All Star Break. De La Rosa got a shot in the Colorado rotation, his command improved, and he started winning. The biggest difference? Opponent’s batting average. Before the All Star Break opponents hit .300. After the break, they hit just .228. If he can sustain his improved command, De La Rosa makes a good candidate to round out a fantasy rotation.

5. Bronson Arroyo-Post All Star Break numbers: 8-4, 3.47 era, 70 K’s, 27 BB, 1.19 WHIP in 96 Innings. One performance was stuck in the minds of Arroyo owners: 1 inning, 11 Hits, 10 ER, 1K, 1BB. That was Arroyo’s line from a June 24^th game against Toronto. He had already struggled in the first half of 2008, but this game proved to be the final straw for many Arroyo owners. Yet from that start until the end of the year, Arroyo was terrific. He went 11-4 with a 3.45 era. Usually thought of as an innings eater, Arroyo has been a surprising source of strike outs as well averaging 167 in his three years in Cincinnati. You could do a lot worse than Arroyo at the back end of your pitching staff.
   

5 Risky Pitchers

All five of these pitchers have value, and all 5 should absolutely be drafted. However, concerns surrounding each pitcher mean that if you draft them too early, you could be left disappointed.

1. Carlos Zambrano-Before the All Star Break, Zambrano was on the short list of Cy Young candidates posting a 10-3 record, 2.84 era, 78 K’s, 38 BB, 1.23 WHIP in 120 innings. However things fell apart in the second half as Zambrano battled tendonitis and inflammation in his right shoulder. He managed a second half line of: 4-3, 5.80 era, 52 K’s, 34 BB, 1.41 WHIP in 68 innings. Zambrano’s talent is undeniable: he threw a 9 inning, 110 pitch no hitter against Houston on September 14^th. However, even WITH the no-hitter, his era for the month of September was 7.08. Draft with caution.

2. Gavin Floyd-Floyd enjoyed a break out season for Chicago, finishing 2008 with a 17-8 record and a 3.63 era. However, Floyd’s performance down the stretch is cause for concern. Take a look at opponent’s batting average against Floyd for the last three months of the season:

July: .234

August: .268

September: .292

Not surprisingly, here is his era for those same three months:

July 3.34

August 4.29

September 4.81

Look for this trend to continue, and for Floyd to take a step back this year: 13-11, 4.40 era,

135 K’s, and a 1.35 WHIP.

3. Cliff Lee-Lee was hands down the biggest fantasy surprise of the year going from a fringe 5^th starter to Cy Young award winner. Of course, since his fantastic season came out of nowhere, what kind of value does Lee have next year? Prior to his disastrous 2007 season, where he made just 16 starts and was sent to the minors, Lee averaged 15 Wins, a 4.51 era, 144 K’s and a 1.37 WHIP. Taking that information into account, the most appropriate projection for Lee next year would be a slightly better version of Andy Pettite: 15 Wins, a 4.20 era, 160 K’s, 1.30 WHIP and 200 innings. Still useful, but not a fantasy ace.

4. Jake Peavy- Peavy is a widely considered a fantasy ace who is just entering his prime. As he demonstrated in 2007, Peavy has the ability to be a Cy Young caliber pitcher in any given year. However, a look at Peavy’s Home/Road splits show some reason for concern.
   

2006 HOME 6-7, 3.75 era, 1.15 WHIP, 137 K in 117 innings

2006 AWAY 5-7 4.57 era 1.35 WHIP, 78 K in 84 innings

2007 HOME 9-5, 2.51 era, 1.07 WHIP 139 K’s in 125.1 innings

2007 AWAY 10-1, 2.57 era, 1.05 WHIP 101 K’s in 98 innings

2008 HOME 5-5 1.75 era, 0.97 WHIP, 99 K’s in 98 innings

2008 AWAY 5-6, 4.28 era, 1.46 WHIP, 67 K’s in 75 innings

It’s not surprising that Peavy's numbers are better at pitcher friendly Petco Park. What

IS surprising is how poorly he has pitched away from Petco in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Add a cranky elbow (that forced Peavy to the DL in 2 of the last 3 seasons), and playing for perhaps the worst team in baseball, and doubt begins to set in. Again, Peavy is an extremely talented pitcher, but when drafting a fantasy ace, you want someone you don’t have to worry about.

5. Scott Kazmir- It’s easy to forget that Kazmir is still just 25 years old. As he demonstrated in 2007, when healthy, he’s among the best pitchers in fantasy baseball. However, Kazmir has dealt with elbow trouble that required stints on the DL in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Of added concern were his struggles pitching deep into games towards the end of last year. He pitched 7 or more innings just 5 times in 27 starts. Of those 5 starts, he pitched exactly 7 innings in 4 of them (the other was an 8 inning performance).

In fact, from July 26^th through the end of the season (including the playoffs), Kazmir never pitched more than 6 innings. He reached exactly 6 innings in 7 of his last 17 starts (5 of his last 12 regular season starts, and 2 of 5 post season starts). In that same span, Kazmir failed to go 5 innings in 5 of his last 17 (3 of 12 regular season games, 2 of 5 post season games). Kazmir has definitely has value, but be weary of counting on him to anchor your fantasy staff.