Young Pitching: A Necessity or a Nuisance?

Ah, young pitching. We all love it, but just like that girl in 10^th grade that we swore was "the one", it breaks our hearts. Most pitchers under the age of 24 are about as reliable as the cable guy (we will be there between 8am-4pm?). However, since the league has just been watered down with just OK pitchers we are all forced to take a chance on the "next big thing" with one, or perhaps two spots on our roster. This generally leads to a lot of adding and dropping as everyone keeps throwing darts at the wall, until they hit that bulls-eye. Trouble is, that bulls-eye is about the size of the eye of a needle. Most rookie or second year pitchers are train wrecks and do more to hurt your ERA, and especially your WHIP than they help at all.

Young pitchers generally fall into four categories:

• Awesome from the start
• Solid, yet go through some rough times
• Inconsistent, but show flashes of brilliance
• A scout is getting fired for that one

Very few pitchers ever fall into the "awesome from the start" category. In fact, some like Jered Weaver and Francisco Liriano start out there, but in their second year slide back down to category two. The three young pitchers that seem to fall into this group right now are Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, and Justin Verlander. Even though he has been struggling this season, Verlander has given up two runs or less in four of his last six starts and I predict by the end of the season he will have great stats considering the start he had.

Candidates to join this group in the future: Joba Chamberlain, NYY; David Price, TB; Rick Porcello, DET; Adam Miller, CLE; Gio Gonzalez, OAK; Ross Detwiler, WAS;

The guys who are "solid from the start, but have some rough times" are the ones that you have to target for your team. Obviously you want the guys in the first group, but the chances are pretty slim, so you have to be realistic. If you can land a pitcher that is good three out of five times out, that is someone worth holding on to. Because the alternatives, like Carlos Silva for instance, are pretty ugly. Not to mention that these guys have the chance to develop into strong major league pitchers in the long run. In the recent past this group includes Scott Kazmir, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, and Josh Beckett. Three or four years later, these are the All-Stars in Major League Baseball. But when they first started out, there were some major bombs on their game logs.

Guys who are in this group that are worth owning: Clayton Kershaw, LAD; Johnny Cueto, CIN; Edinson Volquez, CIN (duh); Chad Billingsley, LAD; Yovani Gallardo, MIL; Dustin McGowan, TOR; Aaron Laffey, CLE; Adam Wainwright, STL; Micah Owings, ARI

Next, we come to the biggest group of them all, and the one we pick out of the most. The "Inconsistent, but shows flashes of brilliance." These are the guys with the 5.50 ERAs, yet come within two outs of throwing a shutout next time out. This is followed by a mad dash to the waiver wire as everyone figures that this is the new hot guy. And the next time out, you remember why he was a free agent to begin with.

Current members of this group that are passed around like a hot potato: Andrew Miller, FLA; Zach Greinke, KC; Manny Parra, MIL; Mike Pelfrey, NYM; Luke Hochevar, KC; Scott Olsen, FLA; Clay Buchholz, BOS; Matt Garza, TB; Jon Lester, BOS

Possible future members of this group: Every young pitcher that enters the majors!

Finally, those who have a bunch of hype, but never seem to put it together. The "Some Scout Got Fired For That" group. It is always very disappointing to get someone from this group for two reasons. One is, you had very high hopes for this individual, and second, since he had such potential, you usually hold on to him for way too long. This group is not usually top prospects, but guys who are thought to have solid major league careers in front of him.

Current members of this group to stay away from are: Homer Bailey, CIN; Ian Kennedy, NYY: Edwin Jackson, TB; Ubaldo Jiminez, COL; Franklin Morales, COL; Ian Snell, PIT

Young pitchers yet to be categorized

Nick Adenhart, LAA--Adenhart is the top pitching prospect for the Angels, but in his short stint in the majors he was AWFUL. It looks like he is going to fall into the huge "inconsistent, but shows flashes" category, although given his performance in his three starts when called up there was no brilliance to be found. Keep tabs on Nick in the minors, he should be a fairly productive major league pitcher sometime in the future.

Phil Hughes, NYY--Unfortunately, Hughes hasn't stayed healthy enough in his short major league career in order to classify him yet. He didn’t look TOO bad in his late season callup in 2007, but his 2008 starts were horrible. I am willing to give Hughes the benefit of the doubt that his ineffectiveness had something to do with his hamstring injury last year, and his strained oblique this year, but he is in danger of being classified in one of the two lower categories.

Jo-Jo Reyes, ATL--based on his ten starts in 2007 you would think that Jo-Jo was in danger of being a total flame out. But this season he has shown signs of living up to his potential as one of the better pitching prospects in the Braves system. In six of his last ten starts Reyes has allowed three runs or less and he has started to last deeper into games. He is also getting closer to that coveted ratio of a strikeout an inning, making him someone worth taking a chance on.

Max Scherzer, ARI--Scherzer's arrival in the major leagues came with all the celebration of a 4^th of July parade, and for his first few appearances he lived up to the hype before being shipped to the bullpen with the return of Doug Davis. Scherzer was effective pitching in relief, but the D-Backs decided to send him back to the minors to keep him on a schedule of starting. Any injury to a starter in Arizona will get him a ticket punched back to the majors. He could have a major fantasy impact if given the chance to start regularly.

Justin Masterson, BOS--With injuries to Curt Schilling, Clay Buchholz, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox appeared to be in trouble with their starting pitching. But Masterson stepped in and stabilized their troubles and has pitched very effectively each time to the mound. I don't believe he has the stuff to be lights out every time out, but as long as he is in the rotation, it appears he will be someone you can count on more times than not.

Radhames Liz, BAL--Liz is a solid young pitcher for the Orioles that reminds me of one of their veterans, Danny Cabrera. Liz has a bunch of talent and strikes out a good number of batters, but it is the big inning and walks that seem to get in his way. If he could ever be consistent and keep his focus, he could be a valuable major league pitcher, but as for now he seems to be his own worst enemy. He has been pretty decent his first two starts in the majors, but I wouldn’t get too excited about him yet.

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